1. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT AND OUTLOOK

• In 2025, the global economy remained resilient, with global GDP growth reaching +3.4%, supported by favourable financial conditions and strong investment in technology. In the EU, economic growth was more modest (+1.6%) and the OECD projects global GDP growth to moderate to +2.9% in 2026, and the IMF forecasts global GDP growth at +3.1% in 2026.
• Global trade volumes expanded by +5.1% in 2025. However, supply chains continued to undergo structural changes, with increasing trade fragmentation, policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions affecting international trade flows.
• Commodity markets remained favourable during most of 2025, with lower oil prices reducing transport costs. Towards the end of the year, however, rising energy prices and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East created a more volatile environment for inland shipping, particularly for the chemical and manufacturing sectors.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

• This chapter draws on recent analyses from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook of April 2026, supplemented by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook of March 2026, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Trade Update of March 2026, and the Spring 2026 Economic Forecast of the EC to outline the macroeconomic context and its implications for inland waterway transport.
• Throughout 2025, the global economy demonstrated resilience, performing better than initially anticipated. Global GDP growth reached +3.4% in 2025, a performance supported by favourable financial conditions, fiscal support in major economies, and strong investment in technology. At the same time, global inflation remained largely stable, registering at +4.1% for the year, which provided some stability to household purchasing power globally. However, the economic recovery remained uneven across different regions. In the EU, the macroeconomic environment was more modest. The EU recorded an economic growth of +1.6% in 2025 and the euro area of just +1.4% in 2025, while consumer prices grew by +2.1% in the euro area. Areas particularly relevant for Rhine navigation, such as Germany, experienced weak growth of +0.2%, constrained by weak industrial activity and persistent difficulties in its manufacturing sector. The Netherlands fared somewhat better with a real GDP growth of +1.9% in 2025. Meanwhile, Belgium recorded a modest growth of +1.0% during the same year.
• According to both the IMF and the OECD, global growth is projected to moderate in 2026. The OECD projects global GDP growth to moderate to +2.9% in 2026, and the IMF forecasts global GDP growth at +3.1%. Both institutions outline the same core drivers behind this downward shift in global prospects: the unpredictable nature of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting disruptions to energy markets. Higher energy prices are expected to increase business costs and reduce demand. Consequently, the OECD expects headline inflation across the G20 to rise significantly to +4.0% in 2026, while the IMF similarly projects world consumer prices to increase to +4.4%. Furthermore, according to the EC’s Economic Forecast, EU GDP growth is projected to slow down to +1.1% in 2026 (+0.9% in the euro area) following an expansion of +1.5% in 2025. Additionally, according to the EC, EU inflation is expected to surge to +3.1% in 2026 before easing down to +2.4% in 2027.

 

FIGURE 1: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP, CONSTANT PRICES


ch1_fig1_raw data
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2026
 
 

TRADE

• Global trade volumes experienced an expansion in 2025, growing by +5.1%.¹ This strong increase was driven in part by rising exports in the technology sector and by companies anticipating their imports early in the year in anticipation of new tariffs and higher prices. This situation carried into early 2026 with the OECD reporting that global manufacturing export orders reached their highest level since November 2021.
• Despite this growth, changes in global supply chains continued throughout 2025. International trade flows saw a reorientation, with shifts in trading relations and a growing fragmentation of markets. For the European inland waterway transport sector, while the overall increase in global trade volumes supported hinterland container traffic, the structural shifts in supply chains and the weak domestic demand in key European economies kept industrial cargo flows limited.
• According to the UNCTAD Global Trade Update, the structural shifts in global trade are being driven by a transition away from non-discriminatory trade policies toward differentiated integration and bilateral agreements. Major economies are increasingly relying on unilateral measures, such as export controls, to advance industrial policy objectives and national security priorities. This environment has increased trade policy uncertainty, increasing costs for businesses and making market access less predictable for producers and investors.
• This situation is being reinforced by changing tariff regimes and disruptions in global logistics. In particular, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a serious threat to global supply chains. According to the OECD and the International Energy Agency, a near disruption in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would affect around 25% of global seaborne oil trade and nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade.

 

FIGURE 2: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN VOLUME OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS





ch1_fig2_raw data
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2026
 
 

COMMODITY PRICES

• During most of 2025, commodity markets offered a favourable environment for the inland waterway transport sector and for the market it serves. Indeed, the earlier months provided substantial relief to vessel operators by lowering fuel and operational costs. However, towards the end of the year, energy prices (specifically crude oil and natural gas) rose, and global supply chains were disrupted again. These late-year developments reversed part of the earlier cost relief and resulted in higher and less predictable operating costs, particularly for the European chemical and manufacturing industries that rely on inland navigation.

 

FIGURE 3: COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (2016 = 100)


ch1_fig3_raw data
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2026
 

CRUDE OIL

• Crude oil prices were generally low for most of 2025, averaging 67.74 US dollars per barrel for the year, representing a -14.4% drop compared to the year 2024. This decline provided substantial relief to inland waterway transport operators by lowering their fuel expenses. However, this period of relief was abruptly interrupted in the latter half of the year. Between August 2025 and March 2026, crude oil prices spiked by +57.6%, eventually reaching 105.8 US dollars per barrel, as military conflicts in the Middle East disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened critical global shipping routes.

 

GAS AND COAL

• Natural gas prices followed a trajectory similar to oil, moving from relatively stable prices to price increases late in 2025 due to supply disruptions. As from August 2025, prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) trading hub rose by +61%. In Asia, liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets experienced a sharper increase, rising by +80.6% from August 2025 onward as a result of the Middle East disruptions. Conversely, United States Henry Hub prices increased only slightly, rising by +4.9% to 3 US dollars per million British thermal units, largely because export facilities were already operating near maximum capacity, preventing the diversion of domestic gas to international markets.

 

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND FOODSTUFF

• Agricultural commodities presented a mixed picture during 2025. During the first half of the year, food prices were weak, with cereal prices dropping to historical lows. However, the IMF’s broader food and beverages price index rose by +4.7% starting in August 2025, driven primarily by rising food prices that outweighed declines in beverage costs. Cereal prices began rebounding toward the end of the year due to emerging weather concerns in key producing regions. Looking ahead, in contrast to beverage prices, food prices are expected to increase by +6.0% in 2026.

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

• Consumer confidence provides an indication of developments in households’ consumption and savings. An indicator above 100 in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) signals a boost in consumers’ confidence in the future economic situation and points to consumers being more inclined to spend money. Values below 100 indicate a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy, possibly resulting in a tendency to save more and consume less. Consumer confidence has an impact on the transport of containers, with high consumer confidence leading to more container transport.
• Throughout 2025, the ESI for the EU exhibited a trajectory of gradual recovery, starting at 95.8 in January and climbing to 97.1 by December. While the index remained below the long-term baseline of 100, the steady month-over-month increases – particularly in the final quarter – indicated an improvement in economic sentiment across the Member States. By the close of 2025, the euro area (20 countries) followed a similar trend, ending the year at 96.7, reflecting a gradual improvement in confidence in the industrial and service sectors. For the first quarter of 2026, the EU-27 indicator reached a high of 99.0 in January before falling to 93.5 by April. This decline in sentiment could be attributed to the economic uncertainty associated with ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the expectations of rising prices across business sectors.

MAIN CONSEQUENCES FOR RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION IN BRIEF

• Overall, the macroeconomic environment in 2025 presented a mixed but generally positive landscape for Rhine and Danube navigation before conditions deteriorated later in the year. The inland waterway sector benefited from the -14.4% decline in average crude oil prices, which reduced operating costs for fuel during large parts of the year. Despite the +5.1% expansion in global trade volumes, container transport on European inland waterways recorded slight declines in tonnes and TKM in 2025. Nevertheless, container traffic measured in TEU increased marginally, largely driven by developments in the Netherlands. At the same time, the sector faced persistent challenges. Germany’s weak economic performance (+0.2% GDP growth) limited the demand for traditional industrial bulk transport along the traditional Rhine corridor. By contrast, the Dutch Rhine region benefited from the somewhat stronger economic performance in the Netherlands (+1.9%) and the more moderate growth in Belgium (+1.0%), helping to support more stable transport activity. By the end of the year 2025, the sudden rises in natural gas prices, together with renewed supply chain disruptions, increased operating costs and created more difficult conditions, especially for the European chemical and manufacturing industries that generate crucial cargo for inland navigation. Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for inland navigation remains uncertain and constrained by the new economic and trade realities.